Zillow's Exit: Implications for Houston Homebuyers

On November 2, 2021, Zillow made headlines by announcing the discontinuation of its iBuying program, Zillow Offers. The decision was attributed to the challenges of accurately forecasting home prices, which exceeded the company's expectations. Scaling the program was deemed too volatile, leading to a significant $304 million write-down in the third quarter.

As part of its exit strategy, Zillow plans to sell its remaining homes, anticipating additional losses ranging from $240 million to $265 million in the fourth quarter. In Houston, a staggering 63% of Zillow's homes will be sold at a loss, with an average loss of $12,576 per home, even if sold at market value.

Let's delve into the repercussions of Zillow's departure from both a national and local perspective.

National Impact of Zillow's iBuying Program Zillow initiated its iBuying program, Zillow Offers, in 2018, expanding to Houston in 2019. The iBuying model, enabled by tech resources, allows swift home purchases through algorithms estimating home values within 24 hours. While the convenience appeals to sellers, iBuyers incur higher costs, averaging 13%-15% of the home's sale price compared to 5%-7% with traditional agents.

Zillow's decision to offload around 7,000 homes aims to recover approximately $2.8 billion. Analysts reveal that two-thirds of Zillow's homes for sale have asking prices below the initial acquisition cost, with an average discount of 4.5%.

While some anticipate minimal market impact, experts like Crystal Sunbury suggest that Zillow's share in the existing home market was modest compared to overall sales. Zillow's quarterly home purchases ranged from 86 to 9,680 homes, a fraction of the annual existing home sales rate of 6.29 million in the U.S.

Local Implications for Houston's Housing Market Houston, the fourth-largest market for Zillow Offers, witnessed a surge in iBuying transactions. In 2019, over 2,100 homes were sold to iBuyers, representing 3% of Houston's homes sold, up from 0.1% in 2018. The current active listings in Houston show a nearly 50% decrease compared to July 2019.

Despite concerns, local experts, including Sunbury, remain optimistic, expecting minimal pricing impact due to the relatively small quantities of Zillow's homes being sold. Zillow's plan to offload homes to institutional investors suggests limited sales to local buyers.

In the short term, Houston homeowners may experience a temporary dip in housing prices. Rick Rudman, CEO of Curbio, acknowledges the potential impact in markets with significant iBuyer presence, such as Houston. However, nationwide pricing changes are unlikely, given the varied iBuyer presence across the country.

As the iBuying landscape evolves, challenges like labor and supply shortages pose threats to the profitability of these programs. Zillow's exit raises questions about the sustainability of the iBuying model and its broader implications for the real estate market. Share your thoughts in the comments below!